Crude Oil Price Forecast: Resistance Challenge and Bearish Prospects

Current Crude Oil Price Trends

Crude oil continued its advance on Thursday, entering a potential resistance zone around a large symmetrical triangle pattern. The day's high of 72.82 tested resistance tied to the August 21 interim swing low. The breakout from the triangle, initiated on September 3, positions this rally as a counter-trend recovery from the previous decline.

Triangle Breakdown and Resistance Levels

The larger pattern continues to dictate movement. The 50% retracement level at 72.19 introduces a potential resistance zone stretching to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 73.74. Additionally, a rising trendline at the triangle's bottom boundary adds to this resistance, which has historically acted as support since December 2023.

Possible Retest of Recent Lows

Upon encountering significant resistance, a bearish reversal could trigger a retest of recent lows at 65.65, with fears of continued declines if the price dips below established support levels, with pivotal markers at 68.49 and a predicted ABCD target around 63.30.

Moving Averages Crossover

The bearish sentiment is further reinforced by the recent crossover of the 50-Day MA dropping below the 200-Day MA, marking a shift in trend dynamics. The 50-Day MA had maintained its position above the 200-Day line since April 11, but following the current rally, the bearish outlook lingers.